The fact that online advertising is continuing to grow while traditional media declines is of no surprise to anyone anymore really; but Forrester has put out a “fresh” contemporary view on where online advertising marketing might be heading and it’s a staggering $55 Billion by 2014 – a 4x increase from where they expect it to top out this year…link to follow.
I wrestle with 5-year views like this mainly because five years ago platforms like linkedin, facebook, twitter and even the IPhone didn’t exist…so change can and will occur in terms of platforms and technology that have a high likelihood of impacting these “projections” – but at the same time; you can’t sit idle and say “why bother…it’s just going to change…” – successful businesses and marketers are always skating to where the puck will be.
That being said – a few things stand out to me:
1. Despite the growth…looks like online will still only account for 21% of all advertising spend; is it because it’s still “cheaper” and therefore throwing the ratios off or are people really going to still be allocating 80% of their resources, time and manpower against traditional declining / dying stuff? I hope it’s the former…
2. Search will continue to dominate – hovering consistently around 60% of allocated online spend…clearly this last click mentality where Google gets overkill credit for customer wins / conversions will still prevail for years to come while I’ll continue to hope for enlightenment in thinking and measuring for all aspects of the buy cycle (see my posts on marketing to the buy cycle).
3. Social media will grow from 3% of budgets to 6% of budgets – but I suspect a disproportionate amount of time and resources are getting haphazardly thrown against this today as people either attempt to “figure it all out” or “play around” or try and “catch up”…look for a future post on measuring social media and what I’ve learned while playing around in the social media sand box
Link to Forrester research via their blog: http://blogs.forrester.com/marketing/2009/07/interactive-marketing-nears-55-billion-advertising-overall-declines.html